Lunch over IP

Where do you see the future?

-- by guest blogger Michele Bowman

(Bowman is the chairman of the Association of Professional Futurists and co-host of the podcast FringeHog)

FringeHog Tags the World is a collaborative social media project that is creating an interactive map of photographs and images that illustrate emerging ideas about the future. We’re interested in where future ideas emerge, how they migrate throughout society and ultimately how they catalyze with people and institutions to create change. Our goal is to design a visual vocabulary of ideas that will inspire a global conversation about the most important trends and memes shaping the future.

How you can help: Set your sights on the people, places and activities that hint at what the future might look like in 10, 20 or even 50 years -- we're looking for images of objects, activities, media, and people that give you that "aha" feeling, like the future is whispering in your ear.  Than snap a photo and email it, along with a title, brief description and the location the picture was taken to future@fringehog.com. Photos will be accepted now through June 15, 2007. Photographs will be geo-tagged, credited and displayed on the FringeHog Tags the World map; select photos and contributors will be featured in a book describing the project.

How to stop bleeding quickly, unclog the Internet and what to do in Rome

-- by guest blogger Michele Bowman

(Bowman is the chairman of the Association of Professional Futurists and co-host of the podcast FringeHog)

While I’m not a fan of re-blogging, Technology Review’s “10 Emerging Technologies 2007” list (featured in their March/April edition) deserves some (digital) ink if only because the articles tend to be, shall we say, heavy on the geek factor. So, here is the cheat sheet.

Peer-to-Peer Video
The Problem: The Internet is headed toward a giant data traffic jam. Today video content and applications account for more than 60 percent of Internet traffic; some say that figure could climb as high as 98 percent in just a few years, causing downloads to slow to a crawl. In short, the information superhighway is increasingly being clogged up by bandwidth-guzzling SUVs in the form of “Lost” reruns, YouTube videos and webisodes of beer commercials. The Solution: Peer-to-Peer (P2P) “mesh” networks which distribute data across a networks of user’s PCs rather than through a content-owner’s central server, saving bandwidth in the Internet’s core.  P2P networks such as Gnutella, Kazaa and BitTorrent have been hugely successful with users – and maligned by content owners who see them as just another word for piracy.  But several projects underway including Pittsburgh-based start-up Rinera Networks are developing new models, such as adding a “toll booth” for P2P networks for heavy users, that aim to stabilize the traffic flow and ensure smooth surfing.

Quantum Dot Solar Power
The big idea: Quantum dots – tiny crystals of semiconductors just a few nanometers wide – could finally make solar power cost-competitive with electricity from fossil fuels. Arthur Noziak, a senior research fellow at the DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory calculates that a photovoltaic device based on quantum dots could have a maximum efficiency of 42 percent, far better than the 31 percent achieved by silicon semiconductors used in today’s PV cells. (Ted Sargent discussed quantum dots at the TED conference the other day, see this previous post).

Neuron Control
Key to understanding the chemical imbalances underlying depression and other neurological disorders is identifying which cells are responsible. Researchers have developed a novel way of doing just that by literally lighting up specific neurons in the brain. Karl Deisseroth and his team at Stanford Medical Center have genetically engineered neurons to produce a protein which, when exposed to light, triggers activity in the neurons (literally turning them ‘on’). The “light switch” lets scientists turn selected parts of the brain on and off may open the door to precisely targeted treatments for psychiatric and neurological disorders.

Nanohealing
The ability to control bleeding in an operating room or at an accident site would represent a paradigm shift in medicine, saving thousands of lives and making surgery faster and safer. Today about 50 percent of the time spent in a typical surgery is trying to control bleeding, and the methods doctors use today – such as clamps, cauterization and vasoconstriction – are invasive and often cause collateral damage. Which is why researchers at MIT and Hong Kong University are excited about the potential of a simple biodegradable liquid which has been shown to stop bleeding in wounded rats in seconds. When the liquid, composed of protein fragments called peptides, is applied to open wounds, the peptides self-assemble into a nanoscale protective barrier gel that seals the wound and halts bleeding. Once the injury heals, the nontoxic gel is broken down into molecules that cells can use as building blocks for tissue repair. While the research is considered very preliminary, if tests go well it could be approved for human use in three to five years.

Augmented Reality
You’re in Rome, staring at a centuries-old sculpture that has obvious historical significance – but the plaque describing the piece isn’t in English and your high school Italian is more than a little rusty. What to do? Well, if you happen to have a prototype of Nokia’s Mobile Augmented Reality smart phone in your hand, you’re in luck. The prototype sports a GPS sensor, a compass, and accelerometers. Using data from these sensors, the phone can calculate the location of just about any object its camera is aimed at. Users can then download additional information, such as the name of the sculpture (in your native tongue) as well as the location of nearby souvenir shops that sell replicas. While Nokia’s system uses locative sensors to superimpose digital information on the real world, other applications in development use a different approach; Total Immersion in Suresnes, France and Google’s recently-acquired Neven Vision are betting on image-recognition software to do the trick. After decades of lab research “augmented reality” apps are ready to hit the street. Coming soon to a phone near you: your world, annotated. (Note: While TR’s piece focused on Nokia, the company is just one of the players in the emerging field known as “collaborative cartography”)

Personalized Medical Monitors
MIT researchers are developing algorithms to help doctors efficiently interpret electrocardiograms, electroencephalograms and other ever-growing masses of medical data and quickly perceive patterns that might otherwise be buried.  Future applications include personalized medical monitors which can sense – and stop – an oncoming seizure in an epilepsy patient.

Compressive Sensing
Using a technique known as compressive sensing, Rice University engineers have developed a camera that uses a single image sensor to collect just enough information to let a novel algorithm reconstruct a high-resolution image. The technology could produce MRI systems that capture images up to 10 times as quickly as today's scanners, and tiny mobile-phone cameras that produce high-quality, poster-size images.

Metamaterials
Artificially structured metamaterials (composites made up of precisely arranged patterns of two or more distinct materials) are opening up an entirely new approach to optics. By manipulating electromagnetic radiation (including light) metamaterials have the potential to transform a range of industries such telecommunications, data storage and even solar energy. 

Optical Antennas
Who needs Netflix? Researchers have created light-focusing optical antennas that could lead to the development of DVD-like discs that store 3.5 terabytes of data – the equivalent of 750 of today’s recordable DVD’s. 

Single Cell Analysis
Norman Dovichi’s lab at the University of Washington is pioneering the science of single cell biology.  The techniques he and his colleagues have developed to isolate cells and reveal specific molecules inside are exposing the differences between individual cells and could lead to better, more precise diagnosis and treatment of diseases such as cancer and diabetes.

Second Life: the future is found in the fringes

- by guest blogger Michele Bowman

(Bowman is the chairman of the Association of Professional Futurists and co-host of the podcast FringeHog)

For someone who doesn’t have an ax to grind, Clay Shirky sounds an awful lot like someone whose avatar got his ass kicked on the virtual Second Life playground. I've read his analysis of the hype surrounding the synthetic world, and I agree with him that the media has been using the number of Second Life’s "residents" to spin (to make up) the “metaverse has gone mainstream” story and that Linden Labs' attitude hasn’t helped (or rather, has helped). But the last time I checked, it’s not a company’s job to debunk the success of its product.

The fact is, Second Life is not mainstream, nor, at this point, it is supposed to be. Despite MTV’s Virtual Laguna Beach and other’s attempts SL isn’t exactly a cool-kid hangout. It’s a playground for early adopters, as comments such as the following attest to: “Second Life is hugely overhyped and I hate many things in Second Life but the most the fact that there is no control over individual pixels so you can't program for example a drawing board or tablet inside of the Second Life!”.  (For a more graphic example of the sheer geekiness that is Second Life, check out Robbie Dingo’s amazing animation of Suzanne Vega’s guitar).  Sure, there are disappointed users and Gartner says that SL is "nearing the peak of hype" - after which comes the "trough of disillusionment". From my futurist’s point of view, however, it’s exactly the geek factor that makes SL so interesting - the future is found in the fringe, not the mainstream.

Reporters need to wake up and smell the real stories. Of the myriad of tales to be told about SL (the emerging role of cyberlaw, the use of virtual spaces to revolutionize costly business processes, how identity is being socially and psychologically renegotiated) the number of residents/users/consumers/logins has to be the least interesting. What happens there is what's interesting. Does Second Life represent the future of the metaverse? Probably not; it’s more likely the prequel. Instead of counting heads, though, Shirky (and his avatar) should have a virtual beer, kick back, and enjoy the show.

A game of mind over matter

- by guest blogger Michele Bowman

(Bowman is the chairman of the Association of Professional Futurists and co-host of the podcast FringeHog, from where this text is adapted.)

Wandering around at the recent Wired magazine's NextFest in NY, I found a new game that provides the perfect paradox to today's adrenaline-charged, physical-performance-driven sports.

It's called Brainball, and at first glance it looks pretty typical - two players sit across from each other at what could be a ping-pong table, with a small ball placed in the center. Their task: move the ball over to your opponent's side and into his/her  goal .

Sounds simple enough, but here's where it gets interesting: the players must move the ball telekinetically. That is, with their minds. To do so, each player wears a headband which contains electrodes and is wired to a bio-sensor system. The system registers electrical activity in the brain; specifically, the alpha and theta waves which are produced when one is calm and relaxed.

Thus the beauty of Brainball: the player who is most relaxed will watch the ball roll across the table toward the opponent's goal for a win. Developed by the Interactive Institute in Sweden, Brainball is the antithesis of traditional sports because it rewards a player's ability to relax - an almost obsolete skill in today's world of sensory overload.

Let's speculate that such mind games represent a possible future of sport. As researchers continue to explore the frontiers of neuroscience they are shedding light on the invisible pathways in the brain. Last month the Seattle-based Allen Institute completed the first-ever brain atlas, a 3D map of gene expression in the mouse brain. Because humans and mice share 90% of the same genes, scientists can use the atlas as a reference point as they tackle the more complex task of mapping the human brain.

As they do, one-dimensional sports that focus on physical strength and stamina could give way to games like Brainball that test the mind-body connection by requiring the athletes to use mental agility to control a physical response.  Rather than adrenalin and muscle, intuitive reaction and emotional response would provide the winning edge.

Imagine the Brainball World Championships. In the final round, a lone table sits in the center of an arena. Amidst a rising swell of ringing cell phones, ringing pagers and humming blackberries, two opponents square off in a match to ignore it all.

Welcome to the sport of the future, a true test of mind over matter; a game where a winning attitude really is all in your head.