I'm at the second European Futurist Conference in Lucerne (Central Switzerland), a gathering of 250 or so futurists and forecasters. The conference will really start tomorrow, but there are a couple of "pre-event" workshops and speeches. Here my running notes.
Paul Gardien is the director of new solutions at Philips Design. He is on a videolink from the Netherlands. He starts off by stressing the importance of meaning in technological innovation: "design must start with observing and understanding people". Then he tackles the problem of innovation: "it is very difficult to bring innovation to market". Despite spending large sums on R&D, most corporations have dismally low levels of innovation productivity (according to some estimates, 96% of all new projects fail to meet targets for return on investment). Philips uses an innovation model called "the alchemy of growth", which is based on three horizons: extending and defending the core business; building emerging/new businesses; and create viable longer-term options. "As a company, you need to be able to manage these three horizons simultaneously".
He discusses a design project called "Nebula" (webpage - video) that aimed at figuring out "whether we can make the waking-up experience more pleasant". The designers imagined a system that would project images/themes on the ceiling of the bedroom: pictures, messages (think "I love you"), moving shapes, etc.
An interesting research piece, but the way it went to the market was totally different: it became an "ambient experience" applied to hospital environments - used to "lighten up" and make less intimidating MRI scan rooms and other medical spaces, for example; or by giving patients RFID cards programmed with different "moods" so that their room would display the images defined by the card they picked (kids would get more playful visual/lighting environments), etc. Paul says that the first results (referring to the Advocate Lutheran General Children's Hospital in Chicago - picture) are encouraging: because kids are less anxious, "the sedation rates for children under 3 are down 30-40 percent; the radiation dosage has been reduced 2-4-fold; etc".
In the Philips approach, the original "Nebula" design project created a new option (distant horizon) that was then turned into a new - although totally different - business opportunity (nearer horizon).
Bruno Giussani is a writer, the European Director of the 









In my last employment we used the 3 Horizons from the book "The Alchemy of Growth"(http://snipurl.com/132ie). It is a really useful model to help prevent risk aversion pushing you down the slope to incrementalism. There are some case studies which are intriguing now as book published in 1999!
Posted by: tartle | November 22, 2006 at 10:19 PM
I have posted thoughts on three horizons on my blog at http://snipurl.com/13etk
I hope they are of interest!
Posted by: JIm Rait | November 27, 2006 at 03:28 PM