Saffo's rules of forecasting

Forecaster Paul Saffo of the Institute for the Future has seven rules guiding his work. Jim McGee at FutureTense has a good summary, out of a speech Paul gave recently in Phoenix. Paul (full disclosure: we'we known each other for a long time) dislikes being called "futurist": for him futurists are advocating a particular future. He considers himself a forecaster, an observer trying to understand, identify the possible choices, and see what may influence the outcomes.
Here are his 7 rules:

1) Know when not to make a forecast.
2) Overnight successes come out of twenty years of failure (if you're not paying attention, you're going to be surprised a lot).
3) Look back twice as far as forward (the change you've lived through in the last 10 years is a predictor of what you are likely to experience in the next 5).
4) Hunt for prodromes (for weak signals).
5) Be indifferent (don't take your desires for reality).
6) Tell a story or, better, draw a map (trying to package your insights into a story helps reveal gaps, risks, and opportunities - the power of storytelling to clarify one's thoughts: see the recent post on writing).
7) Prove yourself wrong (be careful not to rely on a single element of strong information).

A small add-on to point 6: Saffo draws alot, his notebook is famous for being an artwork. If you ever meet him, ask him to see it.